Are all beliefs created equal? The story of the travellers in the wood.

After a lengthy debate last night with a theist claiming that my beliefs are just as "faith based" as his I came up with this analogy that is far too long for a tweet so here it is…

Three travellers are prospecting in the mountains. It is getting dark and they are looking for a place to spend the night. They come across a warm dry cave in the mountainside.

"This looks like a great place" says one, "let's stay here"

"No" say the other two "Our mothers told us about this, bears live in these caves and they'll eat us"

"But there are no footprints and no bear droppings – this cave looks empty. I'm going to check it out"

"YOU CAN'T DO THAT" shout the two bearists "If you do the bear will come out and kill us all"

"Fine, you two stay here and I'll check" says the abearist.

"NO – YOU'LL MAKE THE BEAR ANGRY AND IT WILL KILL US ALL. IF YOU TRY TO GO IN THE CAVE WE'LL KILL YOU" 

"But I can't smell any bear"

"These bears are sneaky – my mother told me they hide their scent with pine branches" says one

"My mother told me they rub fish on their fur" says the other bearist

It looked like the two bearists were about to come to blows over fish vs pine so the abearist said

"OK, you two hide behind that rock and I'll use my torch to look inside the cave"

Still grumbling, the bearists hid behind the rock whilst the abearist shone his torch into the cave.

"Can't see any bear in this cave – I think it's empty"

"It might be hiding - my father told me they're good at hiding" says one. "I was told they're invisible" says the other bearist.

Sensing another possible fight over invisible vs hiding bears,  the abearist says "Right. I'll get the infrared camera out. That'll tell me if there are any invisible, hiding bears in the cave" So he gets the infrared camera out and scans the cave. "No bears in there" he says.

The bearists are still unhappy "There could be niches or holes in the cave walls where the bear is sleeping and your camera can't see round corners"

"OK" says the abearist getting cold and hungry "I'll dig out the ground penetrating radar" (very prepared this traveller – he would have been a boy scout only abearists aren't allowed to join). So he gets out the radar and scans the rocks all around the cave.

"Right" says the abearist. "I've checked and there are no niches or holes big enough to fit a bear"

"Ahh" say the bearists "How do you know how big the bear is? How can you be sure the bear isn't a tiny (but fierce) invisible bear with a body temperature the same as rock? We firmly believe that there is a bear in that cave"

"Look, based on all the evidence I have, I believe that there is no bear in that cave. I'm cold, hungry and tired and am going to sleep"

"But why are your beliefs better than ours?" say the bearists (now looking angrily at the abearist) "You believe one thing and we believe another and there are more of us, so our beliefs must be more important"

"oh shut up" says the abearist from the back of the cave "I'm trying to sleep in here"

Are all beliefs created equal?  Some beliefs are evidence based and some are faith based.